💡 Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! With just eight days until the U.S. election, markets are increasingly focused on its potential impact, as betting odds now lean 66% in favor of Trump. This past week saw heightened volatility, with rumors around potential Tether sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and a significant crypto selloff impacting altcoins. Meanwhile, developments like Kraken's new Ethereum L2 and Circle's "Confidential ERC-20" showcase ongoing innovation in the space. Dive in for insights on the latest market trends and potential trade ideas:
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Market Recap
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• We are just 8 days out until election day, and that seems to be the main driver of markets in the near term
  • betting odds have been trending in favor of Trump at 66% implied odds now

• The Wall Street Journal on Friday claimed that the US Treasury considered sanctioning Tether, while Tether and its CEO Paolo Ardoino refute the story
  • USDT went off peg by 20 basis points but has since recovered
    
    
• Shortly after the WSJ Tether article, Israel launched an attack on Iran, which led to a further crypto selloff Friday Evening after Traditional markets closed
  • Alts led the move down
  • Total Open interest (ex cme) fell from 34.9B to 31.4B, about a 10% decrease, and then recovered most of the losses
    
    
• a16z: Based on our analysis using many of the approaches described above, we estimate there are 30–60 million real monthly crypto users today. It’s also just 5–10% of the 617 million global crypto owners reported by Crypto.com in June. This differential suggests there is a huge opportunity to convert existing crypto owners — who are mostly passive holders — into active users.
  
  
• Kraken to launch an ethereum L2 called Ink, powered by Optimism stack, similar to Base
  
  
• Circle Introduces "Confidential Erc-20" Whitepaper, Which Masks Balances And Transaction Amounts
  
  
• Robinhood is jumping into the prediction betting game, announcing Monday users can begin trading the 2024 presidential election that is eight days away
  
  
• SOL leads majors in 7 day performance with high activity in on chain memecoins.
  • AI agent memecoins were the new flavor of the week for on chain traders
  • $Goat got listed on Binance, and held up gains while most of the ‘Betas’ gave up gains and mindshare

Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

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• Election Day, 11/5
  
  
• FOMC, 11/7
  
  
• Tia Unlocks, 10/30
  • $1B worth of tokens to be unlocked
    
    
• FTX creditor distributions in Q4 ‘24 - Q1 ‘25
  
  
• Sonic (FTM) Mainnet, December
  
  
• Monad testnet launch, Q4
  
  
• MapleStory Universe Game Launch, End of Year

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