💡 Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! Following Trump’s landslide victory, crypto markets have surged, with BTC and ETH both seeing impressive gains. With the GOP projected to control both houses, the regulatory environment looks more favorable than ever, fueling significant ETF inflows and increased activity across the ecosystem. Key upcoming catalysts also include potential fee switches for top DeFi protocols, Devcon announcements, and retail momentum on the rise. Dive in for insights on the latest market trends and potential trade ideas:
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Market Recap
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• Trump won the election in a landslide victory, a massive win for Crypto, BTC trading 25% higher and ETH trading 35% higher from election night
  • Beyond just the executive branch, the GOP is projected to win the house, giving Trump control of both houses of congress, making crypto friendly policy an even more likely reality
  • Gary Gensler will finally be replaced, and the frontrunners for SEC Chairperson are all very crypto friendly
  • Biggest winners should be altcoins that generate fee revenue that haven't been able to monetize or distribute value to token holders due to regulatory constraints
  • Other big winners thus far have been DOGE and crypto stocks
  • Since the election result, we have already seen fee switch proposals in Ethena and Blur
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• ETF inflows have been massive since the election, with record setting days for both BTC and ETH etfs

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• For ETH, the ETF has gotten trivial / slightly negative NET flows since inception, but since the election, those flows have picked up materially, as clearly seen in the chart
  • While there’s only been 4 trading days since, flows have only increased, and if it’s anything like how the BTC ETFs played out and given the nature of the regulatory regime shift, we can expect continued inflows
    
    
• BTC flipped Silver market cap at 1.74T
  
  
• Devcon began this week, many announcements for the eth ecosystem in store
  
  
• Retail activity is picking up, Coinbase quickly climbing app store ranks

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Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas
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• $ETH
  • The ETF has been a non factor since the launch and has been a big underperformer this year for that reason, but in the 4 trading days post election we’ve seen that change
  • Future flows aren’t priced in yet, which has been the biggest driver of the cycle
    
    
• $LDO
  • DeFi as a sector is going to benefit from the shift in regulatory environment
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $150m in fees on an annualized basis to its treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto and tokenization from Wall Street
  • It’s likely a Staked ETH ETF will be coming under the Trump admin
  • Fee switch likely incoming
    
    
• $JTO
  • Along with $LDO, one of the most profitable protocols in the space (see graphic below)
  • Earrings $2-3mm a day in revenue from MEV tips
  • Fee switch likely incoming
    

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• HYPE (Hyperliquid) TGE, Q4
  

• FTX creditor distributions in Q4 ‘24 - Q1 ‘25
  

• Monad testnet launch, Q4
  

• MapleStory Universe Game Launch, End of Year

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