Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! In this edition, we cover the dramatic events surrounding an assassination attempt on Donald Trump and its impact on the crypto market. We'll also dive into notable developments, including the Republican party officially including crypto in their campaign platform, and various global economic updates. Plus, we highlight some key trade ideas and upcoming catalysts. Let's dive in:

Market Recap

• An assassination attempt was made on Donald Trump on Saturday
  • The photo of him getting up and raising his fist went viral on the internet while his odds of winning on prediction markets surged
  • Elon Musk and Bill Ackman formally endorsed him afterwards
  • The Crypto market really liked the swing in Trump sentiment from this event
    • BTC and ETH led the markets higher, steadily climbing from the time of shooting
  • Just earlier in the week, the republican party official platform was released, and includes crypto in the campaign:

• • In the campaign notes above, it reinforces Trump’s verbal vows to remove Gary Gensler from power and to end his crackdown on crypto
  • Trump will speak at Bitcoin Nashville 7/27
  • Overall an overwhelmingly positive development for the crypto space in Donald Trump being a strong supporter of crypto, officially including it in his campaign, while his odds of winning is surging
    • Should act as a recurring tailwind throughout the year as we enter the election
      
      
• Pro Crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis says US Govt BTC Reserves can help strengthen the US Dollar
  
  
• Beijing recently established a new research initiative to study Bitcoin’s geopolitical and national security implications
  
  
• China GDP slowed below expectations and their target, there is likely to be some stimulus measures announced during the Third Plenum (economic policy meetings) taking place this week
  
  
• S&P correlations at historical lows, entire index is held up by few names all year but this phenomenon began to revert this past week with Russell 2000 outperforming
  
  
• $XRP is up about 25% on the week
  • The CME announced that they’re adding CF Reference rates and real time indices of $XRP and $ICP, Launching 7/29
  • The SEC will hold a private executive meeting on July 18. Sources indicate it's related to the Ripple vs. SEC case resolution
    
    
• German Government BTC wallets have run out of tokens
  
  
• Mt. Gox distributions are still on the horizon
  
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Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

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• ETF Analyst, Nate Geraci, calling for spot ETH ETF approval this week:

• 7/18 SEC private meeting, likely XRP settlement
  • look for outperformance in tokens deemed by SEC as securities in the event of (likely) positive settlement for XRP
    
    
• $ETH
  • The market is now pricing very low expectations of the ETH ETF
  • Orderbooks are notably empty at the moment, so if ETF inflows are even 20-30% of Bitcoin’s, then it should result in a prices clearing much higher
  • For those who are cautious about outright market risk, ETH/BTC also seems poised to outperform with Mt. Gox distributions imminent
  • Revisiting Larry Fink’s comments on crypto around the launch of the BTC Spot ETFs, his vision of “tokenization of everything” fit towards ETH much more so than BTC
    • Decent odds of similar comments being made by him to sell the ETH ETF when it launched
      
      
• $LDO
  • LDO took an outsized selloff from the SEC lawsuit against Consensys alleging Lido and Rocketpool staking pools are securities, potentially a favorable entry point ahead of the ETH etf launch
  • Recent developments on the regulatory side are looking very bright, with Trump adding crypto support officially to his campaign coupled with his odds of winning surging
  • SEC allegations also seem to lose effect and mean revert over time, $SOL being the best example of this
  • DeFi as a sector is likely to benefit from the ETH ETF
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $200m in fees on an annualized basis to its treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto and tokenization from Wall Street

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