Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! In this edition, we explore the recent positive developments for ETH, including the anticipated start of ETF trading this week. We also examine significant BTC movements, the German government's recent BTC transfer, and other notable industry updates. Plus, we highlight a few key trade ideas to watch. Let's dive in:
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Market Recap

• ETH had positive developments all month, but the market was unable to hold any positive reactions to it
  • ETH is now trading lower than before the news of surprise ETF approval, although part of that comes from BTC selling off, as ETH/BTC is still trading firmly higher than before the news
    
    
• The ETH ETF is expected to begin trading this week, given the amended S1 filings are due today
  
  
• The below graphics shows the inflows of the BTC Spot ETFs since inception earlier this year
  • Net inflows are at about $15 Billion since inception, about $30B towards new BTC spot ETFs and about $15B in outflows of GBTC
  • ETH Open interest in offshore exchanges is about 6B total, and about 1B on CME, as a reference point to compare to potential ETF inflows
    

• The German Government sent over 16,000 BTC to exchanges and market makers this morning and hold 23,787 BTC remaining, according to Arkham Intel
  
  
• DOJ appoints Coinbase Prime as custody partner
  
  
• SEC sues silvergate bank
  
  
• Robinhood considers listing crypto futures
  
  
• Biden dropping out odds surge, despite firmly stating that he’ll stay in the race
  
  
• An Illinois district judge sides with the CFTC in deeming $OHM and $Klima as commodities, along with BTC and ETH
  
  
• The first version of Solana Firedancer, a highly anticipated new validator software, begins bug bounty program on 7/10
  
  
• Justin Sun teases gasless stablecoin transfers coming to Tron and later Ethereum
  
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Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

• $ETH
  • The market is now pricing very low expectations of the ETH ETF
  • ETH is now trading below the pre ETF approval price, and most positioning for the event has since been wiped
  • The ETF is just on the horizon now, expected to trade either this week or next assuming no more delays
  • For those who are cautious about outright market risk, ETH/BTC also seems poised to outperform given all the pending supply events in BTC such as German Government Selling and MT Gox distributions
    
    
• $LDO
  • LDO took an outsized selloff from the SEC lawsuit against Consensys alleging Lido and Rocketpool staking pools are securities, potentially a favorable entry point ahead of the ETH etf launch
  • DeFi as a sector is likely to benefit from the ETH ETF
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $200m in fees on an annualized basis to its treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto and tokenization from Wall Street
  • The ongoing developments in US Policy stance is a potential spark for the revival of DeFi tokens
    
    
• $XAI, 7/9
  • $85mm unlock
  • alts have sold off very hard so it’s probably not the best environment to short unlocks
    
    
• $ETHFI, 7/8
  • $150mm unlock
    
    
• $APT, 7/12
  • $80mm unlock

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