💡 Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! It was an incredibly eventful weekend for crypto as Trump’s inauguration sparked major market movements. Highlights included the release of $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins, which generated significant volatility and discussions about the administration's crypto impact. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy added another $1B in BTC, and the Ethereum Foundation announced a strategic shift toward DeFi participation. Looking ahead, key events such as potential executive orders, the Solana ETF decision, and the BOJ interest rate announcement will shape the week. Dive in below for insights and upcoming catalysts shaping the market:
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Market Recap
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• Extremely eventful weekend for Crypto before Trump’s inauguration
  • Trump tweeted Friday night an official $TRUMP memecoin that opened around $1B and traded up to around $75B FDV at the highs

• • To top it off $MELANIA followed suit and released a memecoin on Sunday
  • The weekend price action was very interesting, following each memecoin news
    • Correlations were negative across many coins and sectors, indicating flows were very rotational, possibly due to the fact that it was a weekend and banks were closed
    • Trump seems to have created a wealth effect for crypto and especially solana, but Melania appears to have been very extractive (timestamped below)

• • • Traders started to make assumptions on Trump’s administration based on this activity
      • On one hand, some argue that this is good in that the President is pro crypto and onboarding users, which is true to a degree, as we saw Moonshot onboard 400k new users a day after $TRUMP was released
      • On the other hand, some start to doubt that this administration is truly good for crypto and that it will run rife with scams and value extraction
      • As a result we saw extremely choppy price action with sharp moves in both directions
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  • The chop continued on inauguration day as traders continued overreacting on speculation and rumors of him signing or not signing certain Executive Orders
  • As time passes that no crypto Executive orders are signed, crypto trades down, and as rumors circulate crypto rips up, although it has been particularly strong this morning in the face of lack of crypto action
  • Of the executive orders:
    • SAB121 repeal seems quite likely, and will be good for innovation and ‘quality’ tokens in the space
    • Strategic Bitcoin Reserve odds sit at 40% on polymarket, with widely varying interpretation of what it even means
    • No taxes on crypto is another rumor that is being circulated, although the likelihood seems low
    • Pardon of Ross Ulbricht is trading at 92% on polymarket – we’re keeping an eye on this as an easy crypto-adjacent promise to keep without needing any coordination with other branches of government. Failure to do so may call into question some other crypto promises made.
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• Microstrategy acquired another Billion of BTC this week
  • "MicroStrategy has acquired 11,000 BTC for ~$1.1 billion at ~$101,191 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 1.69% YTD 2025. As of 1/20/2025, we hodl 461,000 $BTC acquired for ~$29.3 billion at ~$63,610 per bitcoin. $MSTR"
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• Vitalik changes his twitter PFP and becomes much more vocal, showing a big shift in attitude as the Ethereum Foundation goes through a big overhaul
  • Ethereum foundation established new multisig wallet for DeFi participation, will transfer 50000ETH, showing a change in their attitude towards DeFi
    
    
• Looking ahead:
  • Executive Orders will continue to be signed all week
  • BOJ interest rate decision 1/24
  • Microstrategy shareholder meeting today 1/21
  • SOL - Grayscale Solana ETF Approval Deadline 1/23
  • FTX repayments in Q1
  • Staked ETH ETF
  • Trump’s pro crypto and DeFi Admin
  • Ethereum Pectra upgrade, late Q1

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Upcoming Catalysts
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• $ETH
  • ETF flows have been robust since the election
  • Future flows aren’t fully priced in yet, which has been the biggest driver of the cycle
  • Likely the staking ETF gets approved earning in Trump’s term (signaled by Hester Pierce)
    
    
• $LDO
  • DeFi as a sector is going to benefit from the shift in regulatory environment
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $200m in fees on an annualized basis to its treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto and tokenization from Wall Street
  • It’s likely a Staked ETH etf will be coming under the Trump admin
  • Fee switch likely incoming
  • Consensys lawsuit thrown out
  • Lido V3
    
    
• $JUP, Jan
  • Jupuary $700m airdrop on late January
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• FTX creditor distributions in Q4 ‘24 - Q1 ‘25

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