💡 Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! Over the past week, crypto and equities traded lower as macroeconomic concerns increased, with only one rate cut now priced in for 2025. Key developments include the U.S. government's authorization to sell seized Silk Road BTC, Fidelity’s bullish 2025 outlook for Bitcoin, and MicroStrategy’s continued BTC accumulation, with $243M added last week. Looking ahead, major events like Trump’s inauguration, Gary Gensler’s resignation, and the Grayscale Solana ETF decision set the stage for a pivotal week in the crypto markets. Dive in below for insights and upcoming catalysts shaping the market:
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Market Recap
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• Crypto and equities traded down over the past week as macro worries climb
  • Only 1 cut priced in 2025 now
  • CPI this Wednesday
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• Inauguration is just 1 week away
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• The US government was authorized to sell some 69,000 BTC worth around $6.5 billion seized from dark web marketplace Silk Road – according to a report citing an unnamed official
  
  
• Fidelity Digital Assets, in its 2025 look ahead report, predicts “nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in Bitcoin” this year. The report added: “Investors are not too late to join the digital asset movement. In fact, we believe we may be entering the dawn of a new era for digital assets, one poised to span multiple years – if not decades.”
  
  
• Crypto AI led the market down after previously leading

• MicroStrategy bought an additional $243 million of BTC last week
  • Last 5 weekly purchases were 2.1b —> 1.5bn —> 561m —> 209m -> 101m ->243m
  • Earnings estimated to be on 2/4/25
  • The speculation that Microstrategy will stop purchasing BTC into earnings seems to be invalidated
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• Looking ahead:
  • Trump inauguration 1/20
  • Gary Gensler resigns 1/20
  • SOL - Grayscale Solana ETF Approval Deadline 1/23
  • FTX repayments in Q1
  • Staked ETH ETF
  • Trump’s pro crypto and DeFi Admin
  • Ethereum Pectra upgrade, late Q1

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Upcoming Catalysts
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• $ETH
  • ETF flows have been robust since the election
  • Future flows aren’t fully priced in yet, which has been the biggest driver of the cycle
  • Likely the staking ETF gets approved earning in Trump’s term (signaled by Hester Pierce)
    
    
• $LDO
  • DeFi as a sector is going to benefit from the shift in regulatory environment
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $200m in fees on an annualized basis to its treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto and tokenization from Wall Street
  • It’s likely a Staked ETH ETF will be coming under the Trump admin
  • Fee Switch likely incoming
  • Consensys lawsuit thrown out
  • Lido V3
    
    
• $ONDO, 1/18/25
  • 3.2B unlock, representing about 10x the Avg Daily volume
    
    
• $JUP, Jan
  • Jupuary $700m airdrop on late January
    
    
• FTX creditor distributions in Q4 ‘24 - Q1 ‘25

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