Market Recap

• Equities climbed higher last week and retraced most of the losses from the BoJ fears while Crypto lagged behind and sentiment continues to be poor
  • Negative funding rates persisted for extended periods, suggesting a lot of positioning is short perps
    
    
• Next month’s FOMC is now expected to cut 50 bp with 25% and 25 bps with 75%
  
  
• Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole this Friday at 10 am ET
  • Rates traders will look at his language and price it into next months rate cut odds
    
    
• Binance reopens operations in india after a 7 month ban
  • ETF Flows were slow last week, with BTC net flows of +33mm on the week and ETH net flows of -16mm on the week
    
    
• Apple opens NFC payment to third parties
  • Wallet apps such as Metamask and Phantom will be able to tap to pay with stables, which makes using crypto rails much more viable as a replacement for traditional banking rails
  • Flexa Components allows customers to pay at a retail point-of-sale with USDC and other crypto
    
    
• Mastercard and Metamask partner to make debit card
  • Raj Dhamodharan, Mastercard’s head of crypto and blockchain, told Decrypt that he believes that legacy finance will soon be on-chain
    
    
• Forms 19b-4 for VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs appear to have been removed from the CBOE website
  
  
• Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr hint that they’re launching a DeFi project with more details to come soon
  
  
• The DNC is this week, so look for some swinging in election odds, which currently sits at Harris 51%, Trump 47%
  
  
• Looking head, we have FTX returning about $13B in cash to customers sometime in Q4

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Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas
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• $ETH
  • If the ETF flows are at a turning point, which the data seems to suggest, then the daily inflows will be a good tailwind for price each U.S session and the market may price in the future flows
  • The launch of the ETF allows easy access and establishes ETH as an investable asset class along with Bitcoin
    
    
• $LDO
  • LDO took an outsized selloff from the SEC lawsuit against Consensys alleging Lido and Rocketpool staking pools are securities
    • Hester Pierce made comments that indicate the potential to walk back this lawsuit
  • Recent developments on the regulatory side are looking very bright, with Trump adding crypto support officially to his campaign coupled with his odds of winning surging
  • SEC allegations also seem to lose effect and mean revert over time, $SOL being the best example of this
  • DeFi as a sector is likely to benefit from the ETH ETF as well as the new political climate
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $150m in fees on an annualized basis to its treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto and tokenization from Wall Street
  • See AAVE and MKR price action for forgotten DeFi tokens that generate earnings, once the value is tapped into by implementing a fee switch
    
    
• Polymarket is rumored to TGE sometime soon, so it’s probably worth using the platform for an airdrop

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