Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! In this edition, we'll delve into recent market movements from the past week and weekend, upcoming airdrops, product inflows, and offer a preview of potential market catalysts and trading opportunities. Let's get started:

Market Recap

• Risk assets started the week off weak, selling off into FOMC but a dovish Powell presser marked the local bottom and markets climbed up into the weekend
  • Powell was quoted saying “I don’t see the stag or the flation”
  • Crypto followed equities and risk assets for the most part
    
    
• Coinbase posted a large earnings beat of $4.4 EPS vs $1.09 Estimated and a Q1 revenue of $1.64B vs $1.34B expected, but had a muted move in stock price
  • Retail trade volume remains below all-time highs, at $56b in Q1 '24, compared to $177b in Q4 '21.
  • Institutional trade volume shows a stronger recovery, reaching $256b in Q1 '24, up from $371b in Q4 '21.
    
    
• While Eth and Alts were strong relative to BTC to start the week, BTC had strong relative performance to end the week
  • BTC seemed to do well in the macro driven rally post FOMC
  • GBTC posted $63mm of INFLOWS on Friday, for pretty much the first time since BTC ETFs were approved
  • Friday was also a strong day for net ETF inflows across the board after 7 consecutive trading days of net outflows that had traders fearing that the inflows have stopped
    • It’s interesting and notable to see that the market still responds to daily ETF inflow/outflow data
      
      
• The weekend move was relatively muted following a volatile week, but memecoins pumped, with Doge and WIF both up double digit percentages from after the Friday close
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• Since the April 13th liquidations, it’s interesting and noteworthy that normal market structure has yet to return, as a lot of perps are trading below spot and funding negative, and open interest is sitting at multi month lows for most tokens
  • suggests that short positioning in perps is consensus and potentially crowded

Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

• Hong Kong Bitcoin Conference, 5/9-5/10
  • a lot of speakers and potential announcements this week in the Bitcoin ecosystem
  • BTC L2s such as Stacks and Merlin will both have speaker slots
    
    
• $ETH, 5/23
  • Deadline for SEC to make a decision on spot ETH ETF
    
    
• Eigen TGE, claims 5/10
  • mainnet is live
  • Most anticipated airdrop of this cycle yet
    
    
• $LDO
  • We think $LDO is poised to outperform as it should benefit from a re-staking narrative that’s heating up into the Eigenlayer airdrop
  • Having a whopping $30B in TVL, LDO is one of the biggest and fundamentally strong Defi Protocols that exists, and has a first mover advantage in the liquid staking space
  • There are rumblings that Lido is working on re-staking as well, which is very sensible given their current position and moat in Liquid staking, which may result in a price re-rating as investors draw comps towards Eigenlayer

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